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TUESDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2012

 

 

Tuesday February 21, 2012

**NOTE: Are bonds setting up for a rally? The Dow Transports are not confirming the new highs in the dow Industrials and may be signalling that is close to time for an equity correction.

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Friday February 10, 2012

Hourly TYH12 TAILS!!!!

Tails on hourly candle stick charts are indicative of traders positions. A big selling tail on an up trend indicated big sellers on new highs and not buying. They are often early warning sign of minior trend changes. Note the buying tail on yesterdays lows as an important example. I often speak of  "reversal alert" these are among the most important reversal alerts and why I was trying a short position early this morning.

NOTE: Another selling tail on the hourly charts, dealers must be unloading their auction purchases on the up ticks. gains will come but will evaporate quick, if long take profits quickly

NOTE: Covered/stopped out of any remaining shorts  going higher watching the overnight high @ 131.14 and probably higer now 131.20-131.22 by Monday?

NOTE: 131.03 was an intermediate low last nite cover a bit of short against there and move buy stops down a bit to 131.10

NOTE: Treasuries are leaving large hourly selling tails  up above 131.09+ , that signifies sellers of longs and may take the market back down to 130.30+131.01 area if long move stops up and if im trying a small short up here with stops over 130.11\

Tech Levels & Comment TYH12

Wow, what a difference in the trade overnight! Greece deal not making progress and the Treasuries take a big jump higher. Late last nitgh we saw a drop in open interest in the TYH12 of over 31k ! Yesterdays sell off seems to have chased out a lot of the old longs and now we gap higher. In yesterday afternoons webcast on www.nakedtrader.com i thought we could see the previous highs at 131.07 in a corrective move, well we got that and more with an early morning jump to 131.14 a key fib. retracement of the whole sell off. Its Friday and there will be alot of headline risks now that will keep a bid under the market at some levels the 131.01-131.03 level should act as a good pivot area now that we are above there.  As my friend  WB says use the spots and trade with a slightly more bullish bias today and into early next week.

support //resistance levels tyh12

132.11
132.05
131.28-131.30+
131.21-131.22+
131.14+

131.07
131.01-131.03
130.28
130.23
130.17-130.18
130.05

Thursday February 9, 2012

Daily Bonds Testing Major Support

Note the enclosed daily bond chart, a daily close below the 141.01  support level projects a move down to theoct 2011 lows at 135.07.

This email is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not to be taken as investment or trading advise.We try hard to make sure all the information included here is accurate and correct but we are human and do make mistakes, please do your own analysis and research. Futures and options trading is very risky and is not appropriate for all investors or traders.

NOTE: Going into the bond auction the battle lines are drawn, below 130.23 or above 130.31+ on an hourly close basis will be the next trade otherwise we scalp/chop in between

NOTE: With the bond auction this afternoon the mkt may have trouble getting above that 130.31+ level and that level will slowly move hihger as the day moves along at noon it will be 131.00

NOTE: 130.23-130.23+ support level is the last bastion for the bulls below here we are looking at 130.11-130.12+ and 130.07 for major support levels

Tech Levels & Comment TYH12

Bond auction today, along with the jobless claims (exp.+3k to 370K) and the Fed POMO (exp +$4.25-5 billion in 2018-2019) expect another choppy corrective trade. Most long time readers know my feelings on trading auction days and the difficulty of trading what looks like a corrective pattern. The first leg down in prices since last Friday's NFP double top at 132.11 appears to be complete with 5 waves down and the current correction needs more time to chop sideways to higher. The current price action makes me think that we may just do a "flat" corrective pattern and I want to be on alert for any rally failures or price breakdowns on increasing volumes. As I stated in my afternoon webcast on www.nakedtrader.com yesterday timing for a reversal sometime after this afternoons auction would be a nice symmetry for the correction to end.


support// resistance levels tyh12
132.00+
131.24+
131.14-131.15
131.10
131.08
131.06+ last nites high

130.30+ last nites low
130.28
130.23
130.17130.05

 

Wednesday February 8, 2012

TYH12 Rebound

The 5 waves down from last weeks highs looks to have finished either the A wave or the 1st wave down to 130.28 this morning. The rebound can take many forms but a buy the dips mentality is now in force. the targets above are a bit difficult but I'm looking for  131/07,(previous iv high), 131.13+,,131.24-131.27 as significant resistance levels where we may see this rally die.

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